America’s (Somewhat) Unique Baby Bust; The Rising Prerequisites for Parenthood; Married Gay Men are Pretty Well Off; Abortion Restrictions & Intimate Partner Violence; The Most Sexist College Majors
It's interesting to hear that even with universal health care and affordable childcare in Europe, people are setting high income thresholds as pre-requisites for becoming parents. In the U.S., those are really major financial obstacles, where even people I know with one kid, making good money, will in all seriousness say "I couldn't bear to pay another $30,000 a year on daycare for another 5 years" and call it quits.
The cost of family health insurance is also getting pretty exorbitant here. My younger sister (engaged, probably planning to have kids soon) pays nothing in premiums for her employer-provided health insurance, and she was aghast to learn that (just my portion of) my family health insurance plan's premiums climbed this year from $14,000 to $19,000. There is one cheaper, HSA-eligible "high-deductible" plan option with a premium of merely... $17,000, but where literally every service and prescription drug, aside from one annual checkup, must be paid fully out of pocket toward the several-thousand-dollars deductible, before it actually covers anything. Even with the "good" PPO plan, we have averaged several thousand dollars extra out of pocket every year since our first kid was born in 2018.
I think the common thread across Europe and the States, then, is housing affordability. I think most middle-class workers used to believe, pretty much accurately, that they'd be able to find a decent-enough home, at a manageable if not ideal monthly cost, maybe after making some sacrifices in terms of a less sought-after location. But now people reasonably worry they simply won't be able to get decent housing within commuting distance of their career. The mortgage-to-income ratio all across the US has skyrocketed to levels formerly confined just to places like NYC, SF and Seattle. It hovered around 30% from 2012 to 2021, but is now more like 44%: https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/banking-and-finance/2024/10/16/home-ownership-affordability-monitor-2-0
Thanks! I realize in retrospect that I didn't cite any data to back it up, but only becaues I actually have no clue where to find such data for Europe! But I get the sense from things like AirbnBacklash, and very high rates in Southern Europe of 20somethings living with their parents, that there's also a housing shortage there. I know the UK struggles with this around the greater London region, and Ireland around Dublin, but I'm not sure about the rest of Northern and NW Europe, tbh.
oh i think that's probably because these are specifically married households...the median household income would include a bunch of unmarried singles who are likely to be younger/just out of high school or college etc...
The last study you shared, related to abortion in and partner violence, makes sense to me because by taking away abortion, you also in a sense force women to stay with partners out of necessity. Of course, if the United States had some sort of federally sponsored parental support, we might not see that correlation as women would receive support from social services. As it is, forcing women to carry a pregnancy in a place that will mandate absolutely no social support for them and their future child is wild and evil.
That's a good point! I hadn't thought about that. It would be really interesting to see if the link was weaker/didn't exist in places that offer more support...
My question is, does the rising income standards track inflation? In other words, is it possible that people are actually holding standards constant in terms of real purchasing power. I guess I could dive into the data and find out but I’m lazy 😂
Okay yeah I need to think a bit more about how inflation would or would not be relevant here....If I understand correctly, they are looking at how one's relative position on the income spectrum within their country influences their likelihood of becoming a parent (rather than the literal amount of money they are making). Technically the finding is that being on the upper end of the income spectrum has more impact on whether a man becomes a dad now in a lot of these countries than it used to. Not sure that actual purchasing power/how real wages have changed would influence the analysis...?
One thought on the anomaly: the presence of high quality government (or market) alternatives may make people "raise the bar" on all other aspects of child rearing. Consider how many people are no longer willing to have teenager as a babysitter and expect their babysitter to have an Early Childhood Education degree, along with Working With Children certificates, and police checks.
It's always hard to argue about any specific instance of raising the bar but collectively they seem like they might cause this kind of subtle drag.
I'm on the board of my local kindergarten and even though we meet in the evening and never even see any kids we all had to do 2-3 hours of online classes for various child safety certificates before we could volunteer.
A correction: the paper says the ODDS of union dissolution are about 39% higher for couples who prefer different political parties than for those who prefer the same political party
It might be clarifying that the 50% discount lasts past renewal. You get bombarded with so many subscription services that start cheaply and then renew at full price…
It's just one of those phrases that have become common in the last 10 years or so that are like fingernails down a chalk board. "Clapped back" being the one I find most distressing. No offence. :)
It's interesting to hear that even with universal health care and affordable childcare in Europe, people are setting high income thresholds as pre-requisites for becoming parents. In the U.S., those are really major financial obstacles, where even people I know with one kid, making good money, will in all seriousness say "I couldn't bear to pay another $30,000 a year on daycare for another 5 years" and call it quits.
The cost of family health insurance is also getting pretty exorbitant here. My younger sister (engaged, probably planning to have kids soon) pays nothing in premiums for her employer-provided health insurance, and she was aghast to learn that (just my portion of) my family health insurance plan's premiums climbed this year from $14,000 to $19,000. There is one cheaper, HSA-eligible "high-deductible" plan option with a premium of merely... $17,000, but where literally every service and prescription drug, aside from one annual checkup, must be paid fully out of pocket toward the several-thousand-dollars deductible, before it actually covers anything. Even with the "good" PPO plan, we have averaged several thousand dollars extra out of pocket every year since our first kid was born in 2018.
I think the common thread across Europe and the States, then, is housing affordability. I think most middle-class workers used to believe, pretty much accurately, that they'd be able to find a decent-enough home, at a manageable if not ideal monthly cost, maybe after making some sacrifices in terms of a less sought-after location. But now people reasonably worry they simply won't be able to get decent housing within commuting distance of their career. The mortgage-to-income ratio all across the US has skyrocketed to levels formerly confined just to places like NYC, SF and Seattle. It hovered around 30% from 2012 to 2021, but is now more like 44%: https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/banking-and-finance/2024/10/16/home-ownership-affordability-monitor-2-0
I think you are right about housing being a potential common thread between Europe and the U.S. on this point!
Thanks! I realize in retrospect that I didn't cite any data to back it up, but only becaues I actually have no clue where to find such data for Europe! But I get the sense from things like AirbnBacklash, and very high rates in Southern Europe of 20somethings living with their parents, that there's also a housing shortage there. I know the UK struggles with this around the greater London region, and Ireland around Dublin, but I'm not sure about the rest of Northern and NW Europe, tbh.
There is something odd with these median household numbers, given that the median household income is only about $80k in the US.
oh i think that's probably because these are specifically married households...the median household income would include a bunch of unmarried singles who are likely to be younger/just out of high school or college etc...
The last study you shared, related to abortion in and partner violence, makes sense to me because by taking away abortion, you also in a sense force women to stay with partners out of necessity. Of course, if the United States had some sort of federally sponsored parental support, we might not see that correlation as women would receive support from social services. As it is, forcing women to carry a pregnancy in a place that will mandate absolutely no social support for them and their future child is wild and evil.
That's a good point! I hadn't thought about that. It would be really interesting to see if the link was weaker/didn't exist in places that offer more support...
My question is, does the rising income standards track inflation? In other words, is it possible that people are actually holding standards constant in terms of real purchasing power. I guess I could dive into the data and find out but I’m lazy 😂
Okay yeah I need to think a bit more about how inflation would or would not be relevant here....If I understand correctly, they are looking at how one's relative position on the income spectrum within their country influences their likelihood of becoming a parent (rather than the literal amount of money they are making). Technically the finding is that being on the upper end of the income spectrum has more impact on whether a man becomes a dad now in a lot of these countries than it used to. Not sure that actual purchasing power/how real wages have changed would influence the analysis...?
One thought on the anomaly: the presence of high quality government (or market) alternatives may make people "raise the bar" on all other aspects of child rearing. Consider how many people are no longer willing to have teenager as a babysitter and expect their babysitter to have an Early Childhood Education degree, along with Working With Children certificates, and police checks.
It's always hard to argue about any specific instance of raising the bar but collectively they seem like they might cause this kind of subtle drag.
I'm on the board of my local kindergarten and even though we meet in the evening and never even see any kids we all had to do 2-3 hours of online classes for various child safety certificates before we could volunteer.
Enjoying this as ever!
A correction: the paper says the ODDS of union dissolution are about 39% higher for couples who prefer different political parties than for those who prefer the same political party
Odds, not risk. (It can make a big difference… )
Fixing now!
It might be clarifying that the 50% discount lasts past renewal. You get bombarded with so many subscription services that start cheaply and then renew at full price…
"I Nodded to" ?
That's grounds for divorce right there.
wait I don't get it what's wrong with saying "I nodded to"?
It's just one of those phrases that have become common in the last 10 years or so that are like fingernails down a chalk board. "Clapped back" being the one I find most distressing. No offence. :)